V2EX prospect theory

Prospect Theory

释义 Definition

前景理论:行为经济学与决策心理学中的经典理论,用来解释人们在风险与不确定性下的选择方式。它指出人们通常以“得失相对于参照点”的方式来判断结果,并表现出损失厌恶(同等损失带来的痛苦通常大于同等收益带来的快乐)以及对概率的非线性权重(例如高估小概率、低估中高概率)。该术语在学术语境中最常用;在更广义上也可指“对未来前景的看法”,但此处以理论义为主。

发音 Pronunciation (IPA)

/prspekt θiri/ (美式常见)
/prspekt θri/ (英式常见)

例句 Examples

Prospect theory explains why many people fear losses more than they value gains.
前景理论解释了为什么许多人对损失的恐惧往往大于对收益的重视。

Under prospect theory, investors may hold losing stocks too long because selling would “lock in” a loss relative to their reference point.
按照前景理论,投资者可能会把亏损股票拿得过久,因为卖出会相对于其参照点“确认”一笔损失。

词源 Etymology

prospect”源自拉丁语 prospectus(“向前看、前景”),强调对未来结果的展望;“theory”源自希腊语 theōria(“观察、思考”),指系统性的解释框架。两词组合为“prospect theory”,意指用理论方式解释人们如何评估“前景/可能的结果组合”,最著名的学术定型来自心理学家 Daniel Kahneman 与 Amos Tversky 的研究。

相关词 Related Words

文学与名著中的用例 Notable Works

  • Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk”(1979)
  • Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow(《思考,快与慢》)
  • Richard H. Thaler, Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics(《不理性行为》)
  • Cass R. Sunstein & Richard H. Thaler, Nudge(《助推》)
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