Nations Cut Back and Shadow of 1930s Looms
各支，大年代影重
By David Leonhardt The New York Times _ United Daily News pages 7 on Tuesday, July 13, 2010
The world’s rich countries are now conducting a dangerous experiment. They are repeating an economic policy out of the 1930s – starting to cut spending and raise taxes before a recovery is assured – and hoping today’s situation is different enough to assure a different outcome.
全球各富裕家正在行一危的。它正在重一曾施行於1930年代的政策：在尚未成定局之，就始支加，同指望今天的局面年不同，以保果也不同。
In effect, policy makers are betting that the private sector can make up for the withdrawal of stimulus over the next couple of years. If they’re right, they will have made a head start on closing their enormous budget deficits. If they’re wrong, they may set off a vicious new cycle, in which public spending cuts weaken the world economy and beget new private spending cuts.
事上，策者希望民部能在未年，刺激政策收回後出的落差。如果他得遂所，即可始少大的算赤字。如其不然，另一波性循就展。，公共支致全球更加疲弱，同另一波民支潮。
There is good evidence to support either prediction.
果的，都有充分的予以支。
The private sector in many rich countries has continued to grow at a fairly good rate in recent months. Unlike in the 1930s, developing countries are now big enough that their growth can lift other countries’ economies. And in the United States, wages, total hours worked, industrial production and corporate profits have all risen significantly.
最近月，多富裕家的民部享有相不的成。有於1930年代，中家的成力道已大到足以其他家的。在美，薪、工、工值公司利均已大幅增加。
On the other hand, the most recent economic numbers have offered some reason for worry, and the coming fiscal tightening in this country won’t be much smaller than the 1930s version. From 1936 to 1938, when the Roosevelt administration believed that the Great Depression was largely over, tax increases and spending declines combined to equal 5 percent of gross domestic product.
另一方面，最近公布的一些也足以令人引以，而美即展的政，模更不比1930年代小太多。1936年至1938年之，斯福政府，大大致上已束。在情下，段期的加支合相於民生毛（GDP）的5%。
Back then, however, European governments were raising their spending in the run-up to World War II. This time, almost the entire world will be withdrawing its stimulus at once. From 2009 to 2011, the tightening in the United States will equal 4.6 percent of gross domestic product, according to the International Monetary Fund. Worldwide, it will equal a little more than 2 percent.
然而，於二次大爆前夕的洲各政府增加支。一次，乎全世界都同收回刺激措施。基金，2009年至2011年之，美支的模估相於GDP的4.6%。全世界的支模等於全球GDP的2%多一。
The simultaneous moves have the potential to unnerve consumers, businesses and investors, says Adam Posen, an American expert on financial crises working for the Bank of England. “The world may be making a mistake, and it may turn out to make things worse rather than better,” Mr. Posen said.
英格行（英的中央行）的美籍金融危家．波森表示，各同收手可能致消者、企、投人心。他：「全球各可能正在犯下一，果或使局面更加化，而不是好。」
But he added, “The chances we’re going to come out of this O.K. are still larger than the chances that we aren’t.”
不他接著：「我度的可能性，是比不了要大。」
In the 1930s, John Maynard Keynes’s central insight about depressions – that governments need to spend when the private sector isn’t – was not widely understood.
1930年代，翰梅德．因斯有的核心洞─即政府必在民部少支，大支出─未得多人的理解。
In 2008, though, policy makers in most countries knew to act aggressively. The Federal Reserve and other central banks flooded the world with cheap money. The United States, China, Japan and, to a lesser extent, Europe, increased spending and cut taxes.
然而在2008年，多家的策者都知道，他必主。美邦理事各中央行向世界市大出代低廉的金。美、中、日本相增加支，洲亦如此，只是作有那大。
It worked. By early last year, within six months of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, economies were starting to recover.
做收到了效果。至去年初，各已始逐，距雷曼兄弟公司破不到半年。
The recovery has continued this year, and it has the potential to create a virtuous cycle. Higher profits and incomes can lead to more spending – and yet higher profits and incomes. Government stimulus, in that case, would no longer be necessary.
延到了今年，而且可能形成良性循。更高的利收入可能造就更多支，而支增多又而造就更高的利收入。在局面下，政府的刺激措施亦不有其必要。
But the parallels to 1937 are not reassuring. From 1933 to 1937, the United States economy expanded more than 40 percent, even surpassing its 1929 high. But the recovery was still not durable enough to survive Roosevelt’s spending cuts and new Social Security tax. In 1938, the economy shrank 3.4 percent, and unemployment spiked.
然而今局面1937年之的比法令人放心。1933年至1937年之，美40%以上，幅度甚至超越1929年的高峰。然而管力道如此，仍然承受不起斯福支及新推出社安全的重。1938年，美萎了3.4%，失率升。
Given this history, why follow the same course today?
既已有史，什各如今要走同的路？
Greece has no choice. It is out of money. Several other countries are worried that financial markets may turn on them, too, if they delay deficit reduction. Spain falls into this category, and even Britain may. Then there are the countries that still have the cash or borrowing ability to push for more growth, like the United States, Germany and China, three of the world’s biggest economies. Yet they are also reluctant.
希毫地；它已空。部分家心，如果它不能降低赤字，金融市可能也以它炒作攻的目。西班牙就面的境，就英都不可能。另外的一些家仍然握有可用於造更多成的金或能力，例如身全球最大的美、德中。然而它同豫不。
China, until recently at least, has been worried about its housing market overheating. Germany has long been afraid of stimulus, because of inflation’s role in the Nazis’ political rise. In responding to the recent financial crisis, Europe, led by Germany, was much more timid than the United States, which is one reason the European economy is in worse shape today.
至少直到最近，中一直心它的房市。德基於通膨曾致粹在政崛起的史教，始刺激政策有疑。在因最近一波金融危的程中，以德首的洲家比美畏首畏尾。也是洲情目前比美糟的原因之一。
Finally, the idea that rich countries need to cut spending and raise taxes has a lot of truth to it. The United States, Europe and Japan have all made promises they cannot afford.
最後，所富裕家必少支增的法很有道理。美、洲日本都下了自己力履的言。
In an ideal world, countries would pair more short-term spending and tax cuts with long-term spending cuts and tax increases. But not a single big country has figured out, politically, how to do that. Instead, we are left to hope that we have absorbed just enough of the 1930s lesson.
在理想的世界，各必然以更多短期的撙支、搭配期的少支及增。然而至今仍任何一大琢磨出，如何才能在兼政治的情下做到一。相反的，我只能期待自己已1930年代的史取了足的教。
洲信、墨西哥漏油的理、以及些生活中息息相的事件，
除了持心， 真助不了什呢！
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