机器学习小白,有个项目打工 QAQ 预测效果很差,求指点。 - V2EX
b2504420230

机器学习小白,有个项目打工 QAQ 预测效果很差,求指点。

  •  
  •   b2504420230 Nov 17, 2023 1821 views
    This topic created in 908 days ago, the information mentioned may be changed or developed.

    如题

    目标根据某公司往年财务数据,预测下年财务风险。

    数据集: 1000+公司 2008-2022 年的每年财务数据;按照已有论文从财务数据中已提取出 A,B,C,D 四个能力并量化,每个能力又由 4 方面指标如 a1,a2,a3,a4 构成。 (ps:存在新上市公司、存在被 ST 即被退市警告,以及退市公司)

    问题:

    1. 通过 LSTM 等模型来进行时间序列预测,发现其实时间点太少,就十几个点(因为只有十几年时间点,训练效果感觉不好)
    2. 想要训练出一个适合整个行业(或者每个行业一个模型)的模型,就是不用针对每个公司单独训练模型可行么
    3. 调参数如何避免过拟合,怎么找到一个合适的调参方法?

    因为没有成体系学习过,只学习过数据分析与数据挖掘相关内容,有大佬指个路,那种实用的教程也行 QAQ

    3 replies    2023-11-17 12:04:18 +08:00
    israinbow
        1
    israinbow  
       Nov 17, 2023
    用插值法创建时间点, 换 LSTM-MTL, 验证集性能平缓就停止训练 etc etc; 插眼看楼下有没有大佬回答.
    LaFayette
        2
    LaFayette  
       Nov 17, 2023
    这个数据量,就别用神经网络了,尝试评分卡吧
    fox0001
        3
    fox0001  
       Nov 17, 2023
    @qianc1990 #2 同意……[笑哭]
    About     Help     Advertise     Blog     API     FAQ     Solana     3733 Online   Highest 6679       Select Language
    创意工作者们的社区
    World is powered by solitude
    VERSION: 3.9.8.5 32ms UTC 04:31 PVG 12:31 LAX 21:31 JFK 00:31
    Do have faith in what you're doing.
    ubao msn snddm index pchome yahoo rakuten mypaper meadowduck bidyahoo youbao zxmzxm asda bnvcg cvbfg dfscv mmhjk xxddc yybgb zznbn ccubao uaitu acv GXCV ET GDG YH FG BCVB FJFH CBRE CBC GDG ET54 WRWR RWER WREW WRWER RWER SDG EW SF DSFSF fbbs ubao fhd dfg ewr dg df ewwr ewwr et ruyut utut dfg fgd gdfgt etg dfgt dfgd ert4 gd fgg wr 235 wer3 we vsdf sdf gdf ert xcv sdf rwer hfd dfg cvb rwf afb dfh jgh bmn lgh rty gfds cxv xcv xcs vdas fdf fgd cv sdf tert sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf shasha9178 shasha9178 shasha9178 shasha9178 shasha9178 liflif2 liflif2 liflif2 liflif2 liflif2 liblib3 liblib3 liblib3 liblib3 liblib3 zhazha444 zhazha444 zhazha444 zhazha444 zhazha444 dende5 dende denden denden2 denden21 fenfen9 fenf619 fen619 fenfe9 fe619 sdf sdf sdf sdf sdf zhazh90 zhazh0 zhaa50 zha90 zh590 zho zhoz zhozh zhozho zhozho2 lislis lls95 lili95 lils5 liss9 sdf0ty987 sdft876 sdft9876 sdf09876 sd0t9876 sdf0ty98 sdf0976 sdf0ty986 sdf0ty96 sdf0t76 sdf0876 df0ty98 sf0t876 sd0ty76 sdy76 sdf76 sdf0t76 sdf0ty9 sdf0ty98 sdf0ty987 sdf0ty98 sdf6676 sdf876 sd876 sd876 sdf6 sdf6 sdf9876 sdf0t sdf06 sdf0ty9776 sdf0ty9776 sdf0ty76 sdf8876 sdf0t sd6 sdf06 s688876 sd688 sdf86