V2EX availability heuristic

Availability Heuristic

Definition / 释义

“可得性启发式”:一种常见的认知偏差。人们在判断某件事发生的概率或某个结论的可信度时,会过度依赖脑中“容易想起”的例子(例如近期发生、印象强烈、媒体频繁报道的事件),而不一定基于真实统计数据。

Examples / 例句

The availability heuristic can make rare events feel common after you see them in the news.
可得性启发式会让罕见事件在你看过新闻后显得很常见。

Because of the availability heuristic, the manager overestimated the risk of fraud, relying on a few vivid stories instead of the audit report.
由于可得性启发式,这位经理高估了欺诈风险,依赖几则生动案例而非审计报告。

Pronunciation / 发音(IPA)

/velblti hjrstk/

Etymology / 词源

“availability”来自拉丁语词根,含义与“可获得、可取得”相关;“heuristic”源自希腊语 heuriskein(“发现、找到”),在心理学与决策研究中指“用来快速判断的经验法则”。合起来强调:判断时取用“最容易被想起/取得的信息”。

Related Words / 相关词汇

Literary Works / 文学与著名作品中的用例

  • Daniel Kahneman《Thinking, Fast and Slow》(《思考,快与慢》)以通俗方式讨论可得性启发式等判断偏差。
  • Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases”(《在不确定性下的判断:启发式与偏差》, Science, 1974)经典论文体系化提出并讨论该概念。
  • Richard H. Thaler & Cass R. Sunstein《Nudge》(《助推》)在行为经济学语境中涉及类似的直觉偏差与决策误区。
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